Productivity has far exceeded wage growth in mining and agriculture, but they have largely expanded together across the rest of the economy, and "productivity remains the key to continued wage growth and long-term prosperity", according to a new Productivity Commission report.
In figures that don't align with the RBA's warnings about a wage-price spiral, new ABS figures show private sector rates of pay excluding bonuses are rising at an unchanged 3.8% a year.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe, who earned the ire of unions and some in the Albanese Government with his repeated warnings about the risks of a wage-price spiral, is set to be replaced at the end of his term by his deputy, Michele Bullock, who will be the first woman to lead the central bank.
New DEWR data shows that bargained private sector wages grew at 3.9% a year in the March quarter - the fastest rate of increase in more than a decade, but still a long way behind inflation.
Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke has played down the significance of FWC president Adam Hatcher questioning whether a perceived big increase in the minimum wage could contribute to further increases in interest rates.
A senior Treasury Department official says the Federal Budget's forecast that inflation will drop back to 2% to 3% by mid-2025 assumes the FWC will make a minimum wage ruling that "broadly proxies" last year's increases.
Private sector rates of pay increased to 3.8% annually in the March quarter, up from 3.6% in the previous three-month period, according to the ABS, but relatively weak public sector rises have restricted the economy-wide movement to 3.6% in trend terms, about half the rate of inflation.
Wage growth will exceed inflation from early next year and beat prices by 0.75 percentage points by mid-year, according to the Albanese Government's second Federal Budget.
The RBA is continuing to warn about the dangers of a wage-price spiral, saying the chances of it have declined, but could rise again if the FWC awards a "large" minimum rise this year or government employers ease or drop pay caps.
The Albanese Government has outlined for the first time the details of how it might implement its "same job, same pay" proposal that it framed to ensure labour hire arrangements are not used to undercut employees' pay and conditions.